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 Beyond the more obvious picks for FPL Gameweek 5, who are the hidden gems who could haul this week?
FPL expert Chris Tan looks at the data, opposition weaknesses and market projections to pinpoint his top five under-the-radar picks for the week.
Last week, he highlighted Dominic Calvert-Lewin's appeal, with the Leeds forward going on to score 10 FPL points following a goal and assist.
Joao Pedro was also tipped as the best of the Chelsea attacking options, adding to the growing list of successes from this article already this season.
Chris’s verdict on the best Gameweek 5 captaincy options and punts will be available nearer the deadline in our <a href="https://www.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fantasy-premier-league-ultimate-guide-fpl-tips">Ultimate Guide</a>.
<h3>🤖 Hub AI quick summary 🤖</h3>
A brief round-up of what you’ll find below, and listen to an audio summary too 👇
<ul data-spread="false">
<li data-section-id="yehbay" data-start="1068" data-end="1173">🎯 Manchester City lead the goalscoring projections, with Newcastle the only other side above two goals</li>
<li data-section-id="191oilo" data-start="1174" data-end="1260">🛡️ City and Nottingham Forest have the strongest clean sheet projections</li>
<li data-section-id="1ag329p" data-start="1261" data-end="1370">🎖️ Bryan Mbeumo’s goal threat and positioning line up particularly well with Fulham’s defensive weaknesses</li>
<li data-section-id="1twi8ti" data-start="1371" data-end="1471">👀 Dominic Calvert-Lewin gets another excellent match-up against the league’s worst defence</li>
</ul>
<audio class="wp-audio-shortcode" id="audio-83864-3" preload="none" style="width: 100%;" controls="controls"><source type="audio/mpeg" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/GW5-fixtures-2.mp3?_=3" /><a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/GW5-fixtures-2.mp3">https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/GW5-fixtures-2.mp3</a></audio>

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<h2>FPL Gameweek 5: Teams and fixtures to target</h2>
Four gameweeks gives us a little more confidence in the early trends.
The market projections remain the starting point but we can now combine them with expected goals (xG), expected goals conceded (xGC), big chances, set-pieces and where teams are actually allowing opponents to create.
There are also a few cases this week where the projection and the underlying process disagree, which is exactly where things start to get interesting.
Please note, projections often shift as information such as team news emerges.
<h3 class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer" data-section-id="13gsiq1" data-start="2044" data-end="2108">⚽ Target for goals: Manchester City, Newcastle and Liverpool</h3>
<ul data-start="2110" data-end="2307">
<li data-section-id="166oy2a" data-start="2110" data-end="2154">Manchester City: 2.49 v Sunderland (H)</li>
<li data-section-id="1hy3rmn" data-start="2155" data-end="2187">Newcastle: 2.18 v Hull (H)</li>
<li data-section-id="1ih9zty" data-start="2188" data-end="2227">Nottingham Forest: 1.97 v Coventry (H)</li>
</ul>
City lead the way again.
They have generated 7.77 xG through four matches and now face a Sunderland defence who have conceded 5.93 xGC, 10 big chances and 30 shots inside the box.
City are projected to score 2.49 goals, while Sunderland have just an 8% clean sheet probability, making Erling Haaland the obvious standout. We’ll come back to him briefly before the top five picks are discussed.
Newcastle are more complicated. The market gives them an excellent 2.18 goal projection against Hull but their own attacking process has been poor. Their 3.93 xG is better than only Aston Villa and Coventry.
<div id="attachment_83881" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-83881" class="size-large wp-image-83881" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/top-10-team-xg-gw1-4-1024x768.png" alt="The 10 worst teams for expected goals (xG)" width="1024" height="768" />
The 10 worst teams for expected goals (xG)
</div>
&nbsp;
Hull have conceded 5.9 xGC and 38 shots inside the box, while their biggest zonal weakness has been down their right.
That potentially points towards Harvey Barnes attacking from Newcastle’s left, while Yoane Wissa remains the more obvious central goal threat.
Both started in the defeat at Leeds but Newcastle were comprehensively outplayed in a 4-1 loss.
The fixture is good enough to keep their attackers on the radar but the underlying attack prevents either from making my five.
<div id="attachment_83882" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-83882" class="size-large wp-image-83882" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/top-10-team-xg-conceded-gw1-4-1-1024x768.png" alt="Hull's defensive data is worse than their actual goals conceded - but it's by no means the worst in the league" width="1024" height="768" />
Hull's defensive data is worse than their actual goals conceded - but it's by no means the worst in the league
</div>
&nbsp;
Liverpool travel to one of the most interesting teams in the league.
Bournemouth have generated 7.52 xG, the fourth best attacking total, but have also conceded 5.30 xGC and 10 big chances.
Liverpool haven’t been completely convincing themselves, with 6.18 xG and 5.34 xGC.
That will create opportunities at both ends. Alexander Isak remains Liverpool’s obvious route, averaging around 0.70 xG and one big chance per start, while Bournemouth have conceded most frequently through their centre and left.
But Liverpool have shown weakness through the middle and their defensive right too, which creates a very interesting match-up for one of Bournemouth’s most in-form players.
Arsenal are projected to score 1.85 goals against Brighton.
The Seagulls' attack has been outstanding but their defence has been almost the opposite, conceding 7.10 xGC, 12 big chances and 39 shots inside the box.
The clearest positional weakness is centrally, where they have conceded 15 chances, compared with only seven down their left.
<div id="attachment_83883" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-83883" class="size-large wp-image-83883" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/top-10-team-xg-conceded-gw1-4-2-1024x768.png" alt="The worst teams for expected goals conceded (xGC)" width="1024" height="768" />
The worst teams for expected goals conceded (xGC)
</div>
&nbsp;
That potentially favours Martin Odegaard more than Bukayo Saka from a pure zonal perspective.
Saka remains the stronger conventional FPL pick because of penalties and his overall attacking quality but Odegaard’s positioning gives him an intriguing individual match-up.
The Gunners' recent win at Sunderland showed both remain central to their attack, with Saka converting the late penalty.
Finally, Forest, Everton and Manchester United all sit around the 1.9 goal mark.
Each provides at least one specific opposition weakness worth targeting and they account for three of my five picks below.
<div id="attachment_83897" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-83897" class="wp-image-83897 size-large" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/market-odds-gw5-1024x768.png" alt="Gameweek 5 projections" width="1024" height="768" />
Gameweek 5 projections
</div>
&nbsp;
<h3 class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer" data-section-id="1u0dhb6" data-start="5157" data-end="5246">💪 Target for clean sheets: Manchester City, Nottingham Forest, Arsenal and Newcastle</h3>
<ul data-start="5248" data-end="5434">
<li data-section-id="pmmujn" data-start="5248" data-end="5291">Manchester City: 47% v Sunderland (H)</li>
<li data-section-id="1g1lba6" data-start="5292" data-end="5335">Nottingham Forest: 36% v Coventry (H)</li>
<li data-section-id="iatdz5" data-start="5336" data-end="5369">Arsenal: 35% v Brighton (A)</li>
<li data-section-id="1eon6kg" data-start="5370" data-end="5401">Newcastle: 35% v Hull (H)</li>
</ul>
City also lead the clean sheet projections. Their 3.63 xGC is second only to Arsenal's, while Sunderland are forecast to score just 0.72 goals.
Forest have quietly been very solid too. They have conceded only 4.01 xGC, while Coventry are projected below one goal and have generated just 3.91 xG themselves. Frank Lampard's team are yet to score.
That makes Forest’s 36% clean sheet probability particularly interesting because they also have a defender who matches Coventry’s clearest positional weakness. More on that below.
Arsenal remain the league’s outstanding defence, conceding only 2.56 xGC and four big chances.
Their 35% clean sheet probability looks modest by their high standards but that is because Brighton have generated a league-leading 9.86 xG.
<div id="attachment_83884" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-83884" class="size-large wp-image-83884" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/top-10-team-xg-gw1-4-1-1024x768.png" alt="Brighton top the chart for expected goals (xG)" width="1024" height="768" />
Brighton top the chart for expected goals (xG)
</div>
&nbsp;
This is a genuine strength-against-strength match-up rather than one I’d automatically target defensively.
Newcastle’s 35% clean sheet chance is far more fixture-driven. They have conceded 7.38 xGC, the third-worst total in the league, and have just been thrashed by Leeds.
Hull are projected to score just 1.01 goals, so the market likes Newcastle’s chances, but the defensive process makes me reluctant to treat that clean sheet as secure.
Lewis Hall still retains appeal because set-pieces and attacking involvement give him additional routes to points but I wouldn’t buy a Newcastle defender for the clean sheet potential alone.
Everton round out the top five. Ipswich are projected to score just 1.05 goals, while Everton have already shown enough defensive solidity to make their assets viable.
The more interesting route in this fixture, however, might actually be at the other end.
<h2>FPL Gameweek 5: Players to target</h2>
Before getting on to the five, the obvious name is Erling Haaland.
City have the best attacking projection of the week and Haaland is the player most likely to be on the end of the highest-quality opportunities City create.
He doesn’t need uncovering here. He’ll feature much more prominently in the captaincy discussion.
Instead, here are the five individual match-ups I find most interesting.
<div id="attachment_83885" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-83885" class="size-large wp-image-83885" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/haaland-landscape-4-1024x768.jpg" alt="Erling Haaland's stats" width="1024" height="768" />
Erling Haaland's stats
</div>
&nbsp;
<h3 data-section-id="1st0aug" data-start="7577" data-end="7611">🥇 Bryan Mbeumo (v Fulham)</h3>
Target: Left zone and box threat
Fulham’s defensive numbers make this fixture considerably more interesting than United's goal projection suggests.
As well as their poor xGC, they have allowed a league-high 18 big chances, as well as 38 attempts inside the box.
Their positional weakness is split almost perfectly between the centre and their defensive left, with 16 chances conceded through each zone.
That means both Bruno Fernandes and Mbeumo match up well.
But for this article, I prefer Mbeumo. He has generated 2.79 xG from 14 shots, with 11 of those attempts coming from inside the box and five classified as big chances.
Fernandes has actually taken more shots overall - 16 -  but only six have come from inside the box, producing three big chances and 2.29 xG.
This distinction is important. Fernandes offers penalties, creativity and bonus potential, so he remains an excellent FPL asset.
But Mbeumo is carrying the greater open-play goal threat. He has started from the right in United’s 4-2-3-1, putting him directly against the side of Fulham’s defence that has conceded 16 chances.
Strong team xG, league-worst opposition big-chance numbers, a positional weakness and excellent individual goal threat all align here.
<div id="attachment_83886" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-83886" class="size-large wp-image-83886" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/mbeumo-landscape-1024x768.jpg" alt="Bryan Mbeumo's stats" width="1024" height="768" />
Bryan Mbeumo's stats
</div>
&nbsp;
<h3 data-section-id="g86y0r" data-start="8928" data-end="8979">🥈 Dominic Calvert-Lewin (v Crystal Palace)</h3>
Target: Central zones and box threat
We backed Calvert-Lewin last week and there is no reason to jump off now.
Crystal Palace have the worst defensive total in the league from an xGC perspective. They have also allowed 54 attempts inside the box, 11 big chances and 25 shots on target.

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FPL Gameweek 5 fixtures: 5 under-the-radar picks who could punish opposition weaknesses

FPL Gameweek 5 fixtures: 5 under-the-radar picks who could punish opposition weaknesses

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